Undue Hate by Daniel Stone
Author:Daniel Stone [Stone, Daniel]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Affective polarization; behavioral economics; cognitive bias; negative partisanship; conflict spirals; intergroup bias; Cass Sunstein; Why We're Polarized; Ezra Klein;
Publisher: MIT Press
Published: 2023-03-30T00:00:00+00:00
A Toy Model of Snowballing Misunderstanding
Before wrapping up the chapter, Iâd like to quickly formalize a key general point: how the combination of tit-for-tat strategy, biased character inference, lack of strategic foresight, and escalation naturally cause misperceptions, and animosity, to snowball over time.13 Suppose two players, A and B, take turns choosing a number, X, which must be greater than or equal to zero. For each player, when choosing X, a higher X is good for yourself and bad for the other player, and the harm to the other player from choosing a higher value of X is greater than the benefit to yourself, so higher values of X are âselfishâ in that they are privately good but socially inefficient. Thus, both players consider a choice of high X by the other player to signal poor character. (One could interpret X = 0 as âcooperationâ and higher values of X as higher degrees of âdefectionâ to map this back to the prisonerâs dilemma.) Each player has beliefs about the quality of the otherâs character, which is some number ranging from 0 to infinity (a higher number implies less selfishness and better character). Suppose these beliefs can be represented with a single value, the expected quality of their character, and each player dislikes the other more when this number is smaller.
Specifically, in round t, for odd values of t, suppose player A chooses the number:
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